According to the UN Climate Panel (IPCC), with today’s emission levels of greenhouse gases, the global temperature rise can pass 1.5 degrees Celsius as early as 2030.
The report was presented in South Korea on Monday. The Climate Panel has been commissioned to identify what is needed to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees above the pre-industrial level.
The Climate Panel believes that it is very important to bring a change in the society and world economy on a very large scale.
“To avoid global climate change will require a change of society and the world economy on a scale never before seen,” the UN report said, warning that time is about to expire in order to avoid full disaster.
“Global warming will probably reach 1.5 Celsius between 2030 and 2052 if heating continues to increase at today’s rate,” concluded the report, and asserted the assurance of high security.
The report says that the Earth’s surface has already heated to 1 degree on average, once again the ocean has increased and a dramatic increase in extreme weather, with heavy storms, floods and droughts. If nothing is done, the globe will be heading for an increase of 3-4 degrees, which will be catastrophic.
Coal and oil must be phased out and the gigantic climate emissions of the world must be halved by 2030. New technologies must probably be developed to capture and store CO2. Large amounts of forest must be planted to suck CO2 out of the air.
According to the report, the world needs to be carbon neutral by 2050 just to have a 50 percent chance of reaching the 1.5-degree goal.
Increase in climate emissions in 2018 as well
While the UN’s climate panel warns against dramatic climate change in a new report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) is still experiencing increasing climate emissions.
“Looking at the first nine months of data, I expect that climate emissions will increase again in 2018, ” said the IEA chief Fatih Birol to The Guardian.
The organization does not come with official estimates of CO2 emissions in 2018 before next year. But the IEA confirms that so far this year they have risen to a new record level.
“This is definitely worrisome news for our climate goals. What we need is a steep drop in emissions. We do not even feel that they are flipping out,“says Birol.
After many years, where more CO2 was released into the atmosphere, emissions were stable in the period 2014 to 2016. This was a hope that they would soon start to sink.
But last year, CO2 emissions from power generation and industry made a new jump. The IEA’s figures for this year indicate that the trend upwards continues.
The IEA also believes that the use of renewable energy will grow relatively rapidly over the next few years, according to a new report released by the organization on Monday.
Worst consequences of global warming
The most central objective of international climate policy has been limiting the heating to 2 degrees which has been considered the limit of “dangerous climate change”.
However, the changes recorded in recent years indicate that the consequences of moderate global warming are worse than expected. There are several cases of extreme weather. Also the ice in the Arctic melts faster than the scientists are expecting.
The new IPCC report describes the benefits that can be achieved if the 1.5-degree target is reached, instead of the temperature rising 2 degrees.
420 million people can not be exposed to frequent extreme heat waves.Some tropical coral reefs can survive – instead of all dying out.
“The next ten years is crucial for whether we will manage to keep a world as we know it today,” says climate and environmental minister Ola Elvestuen in a statement to NTB.
17,000 billion to reach 1.5-degree goal
The price of having an opportunity to reach the 1.5-degree goal will be very high. The IPCC estimates 17,000 billion kroner each year until 2035 worldwide.
However, not reaching the goal is assumed to be even more expensive. The price in this case will be in the form of increasingly frequent natural disasters, heat waves and rising sea levels.
The calculations of the costs are based on the fact that we manage without more extreme measures that have been called climate manipulation. One possible method is to spray sulfur particles into the atmosphere to force the temperature down.
Researchers, however, warn that such measures may have unforeseen consequences.
The demand for the new IPCC report has taken place at a meeting in South Korea in the last week. Each line in the report’s summary had to be approved by representatives of almost all world countries.
Also, the Trumps government’s US consignments accepted the summary, but they made reservations that they do not necessarily agree on everything that is there.