No housing crash repots Handelsbanken

Graphs show where house prices should be.

Handelsbanken Capital Markets, in today’s morning report, looks forward to Norges Bank’s lending survey for Q4 2018.

– In light of the fact that Norges Bank has now set the interest rate, it can be interesting to see if the banks report any changes in the loan demand. But probably this is not much changed for the three months we have behind us. First, there is a correlation between the change in house prices and the changes in loan demand. And here, house prices have remained reasonably stable during the three months we have behind us, writes senior economist Marius Gonsholt Hov.

– We can also assume that banks in the last round reported fairly unchanged loan demand and that they did not expect any special changes for the fourth quarter. Should the banks have something new to report, in that case it must be about the expected loan demand going forward. But with continued good activity in the housing market, there is reason to believe that the demand for loans has kept up, he continues.

Normal January rise?

Senior economist notes that expectations for house prices in 2019 are shrinking.

– For January you will find everything from those who expect flat nominal prices to those who expect price increases. Here we must remember the following: It is normal for prices to rise nominally in January. And as usual, the seasonally adjusted numbers we care about; Have house prices risen more or less than normal for January? asks Gonsholt Hov.

He refers to a recent publication in DN, where broker reports pointed to a relatively normal rise in prices for January.

– Nothing immediately stuck

– Our expectation for 2019 should be known: We expect a moderate rise in prices for the year as a whole, where average annual growth will fall slightly below wage growth. It also means that we see a moderate seasonally adjusted price increase when we see the first quarter as a whole, the senior economist continues.

He has added two figures that show the balance between the number of homes that are sold for sale and the number actually sold (Norway and Oslo, respectively).

Photo: Macrobond / Handelsbanken

– These are also backdated by a few months; precisely because the current balance appears to provide some leading information on price developments in the next quarter. As you can see, it seems that we will see a moderate seasonally adjusted price increase from the first quarter. Nothing immediate stool and crisis scenario, in other words, Gonsholt Hov concludes.


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